Summary 概要
This is the very first time to write a portfolio review and share with all of you, so it may worthwhile to reinforce the spirit herein. In 2019, Hong Kong has been rated by the European Intelligence Unit as the most expensive city in the world, together with Singapore and Paris. The average property price hits USD 1.2 Million and retains Hong Kong the least affordable housing market in the world. The growth in salary, in other words active income, is incompetent of catching up with the inflation. Diversified income sources have shown greater importance. Certain portfolios are built by each author to study the capability, stability and sustainability of the respective investment strategy.
大家好，作為本專欄第一篇文章，請容許筆者在此略書，簡述本欄目的。由本篇開始，專欄將會季度放送，就CK於2019年新建立的投資組合（下稱「CK組合」或「組合」）季度表現、交易策略進行檢討、回顧。正如學會介紹所述，滙思著重投資於能抗通脹、及產生穩定現金流的有效資產，在全球超低息大環境下，建立系統分散收入來源。下文將通過可行性、穩定性及持續性三個角度進行分析。
Overview 總覽
Starting from March 2019, the concerning portfolio was built in attempt to generate steady cash returns. The Dollar Cost Averaging strategy is currently employed to invest into a selected list of 3 stocks monthly. The list (Figure 1) includes HSBC Holdings (“HSBC”, 5.SEHK), CKI Holdings (“CKI”, 1038.SEHK) and HKT-SS (“HKT”, 6823.SEHK). Certain amount of cash is retained for upcoming investment opportunities. The detailed analysis of the securities will be discussed in another article published later.
目前，CK組合運用平均成本法（請參閱英文版本腳註內附的連結），投資於圖一所示的三家公司。三家公司按上市編號排序依次為滙豐控股、長江基建及香港電訊。由於本文的重點為組合的整體操作及檢討，個別公司的詳細分析將留在未來的文章中分享。
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| Figure 1 |
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Capability 可行性
Capability shall always be understood as the portfolio’s ability to meet specific return as long as the article is written by CK. During the period, a cash return equal to HKD 1,287.20 was distributed. Suppose the return can be maintained in the following three quarters and the stocks will be sold at the average cost per share, the return on investment (“ROI”) will be equivalent to approximately 9%.
正如「概要」所言，滙思的組合以價值增長、抵禦通脹、產生現金流回報為目標。在本文及往後的文章中，可行性意指組合達到目標回報率的能力。在剛過去的第二季度，組合產生了1,287.20港元現金回報。若在未來三個季度，該回報比率能夠維持的話，組合的投資回報率將接近9%，在未有運用任何財務槓桿的情況下屬可觀水平。
It is nonetheless unlikely to be the case. 2 out of 3 of my existing stocks have paid the final dividends in the previous quarter, in which about 75% of the return was attributed to CKI. As of 9 July 2019, the portfolio was even suffering from an unrealised loss (Figure 2). The present constitution of the portfolio should not be construed as a healthy one, nor did it achieve a satisfactory return.
心水清的讀者立即發現，上述的投資回報率並不現實。組合目前所持有的三家公司，有兩家於剛過去的一季分發期末股息，代表在未來三季，獲分派的股息回報將會減少。由圖二可見，按7月9日收市價計算，組合的未實現回報為負數，即虧損。同時，長江基建佔CK組合的比例逾6成，風險水平有待調整，回報亦未如人意。
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| Figure 2 |
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| Figure 3 (Source: Trading Economics) |
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In the previous 10 years, Hong Kong has been hugely influenced by the Quantitative Easing policies around the world. Despite the formation of causation link is still debatable, excessive inflation was frequently seen in the city. A similar lunch set in Fairwood (A well-known local fast food chain) is priced at HKD 5X where it used to be offered at HKD 3X.
You may wonder why inflation is discussed. This is partially because one of the aims of investment is to preserve the purchasing power of capital. The time value of money varies along time and present value is thus commonly applied in the commercial world. A return lower than 4% is arguably not enough to meet the target bearing in mind the exaggerating inflation in the past decade.
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在衡量回報水平的高低時，我們無可避免地需要與本地通脹水平作比較。若我們回想十年前，快餐店午餐的售價，取之與2019年的價格比對，就能夠直觀地了解通脹的影響力。縱使學術界對寬鬆貨幣政策與通脹的關係未有共識，但熱錢的流入和驚人的資產價格升幅，卻是不爭的事實。圖三所示，本港過去十年，平均通脹率接近4%。若年度回報率未能追上通脹水平，投資者的購買力將被削弱。故此，4%以上的投資回報率，對組合的管理屬最基本要求。
Stability 穩定性
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| Figure 4 (Source: Yahoo! Finance) |
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For stability, we are talking about the volatility of the portfolio. This includes the volatility of (1) asset price and (2) annualised return. The measurement is important since it provides scientific assessment of risk. Hereby we are only examining the first category. Comparing with the market index, the selected stocks have shown lower volatility in last 3 months. And it has attained a better return than the general market. Therefore it is believed that the portfolio is exposing to acceptable risk recently.
穩定性顧名思義是指組合的波動水平，當中包括(1)資產價格及(2)投資回報率兩方面。它的重要性在於提供投資人一個標準評估組合曝險程度。圖四中，我們將組合內的三只股票的價格波幅，與恒生指數進行比較。在恒生指數由30,000點下挫並低見26,000的第二季，組合仍然維持正回報及較市場為低的波幅，抗壓力屬可接受水平。
In addition to the retention of purchasing power, investment is a mean to create a passive, secondary income source. As its name suggests, investors are not meant to closely monitor the floating of stock prices. The act of investment is to make our lives better but not the contrary.
It is worthwhile to note that the importance of volatility also lying on the appropriate level of financial leverage of the portfolio. The use of debt capital to gear up the return is nothing new to the financial market or any individual investors. Mortgage loan granted by Mortgagee to Mortgagor is one of the classic examples. And again, this is a lengthy topic which shall be revisited in a more detailed manner.
穩定的投資組合，能夠提升投資人的回報效率，以最少的時間成本，達到合理的回報水平。另一方面，平穩的組合為投資人提供善用槓桿的空間，在可控的風險下擴大投資回報率。
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Sustainability 持續性
Sustainability of a portfolio means its ability to grow organically. An organic portfolio is one which is able to reinforce itself without the inflow of new capital. Apparently that is not the case in short term (i.e. 1 to 3 years’ time). The process can be analogised to raising a child. Parents have to feed, protect and educate the children before they become independent.
持續性是指組合自行增長的能力。投資組合就像人一樣，在孩童時間需要父母的教育、照料，到成人階段就要學懂自立，在東方社會更有養兒防老之說，由子女回饋父母的培養。一個健康的組合，亦不可能要求投資人無限地投入資金，反之需要在合理的時間內，到達自然增長的狀態。
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| Figure 5 (Source: Interactive Broker) |
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Referring to articles and books written by Starman, the growth is a cycle of financing and deleveraging. But for such an option being made available, the portfolio shall first meet the minimum requirement concerning net asset value (“NAV”) and always maintain enough buffers to avoid over-exposure to market risk. The first goal of the portfolio is to switch the custodian from bank to Interactive Brokers which offers loan facility with more reasonable interest rates (Figure 5).
學會的筆者都非常推介讀者購買並細閱Starman撰寫的著作，其中第2卷提到組合的增長是一個槓桿化然後去槓桿化的過程。延續上述人的比喻，槓桿就像營養產品，適量服用有助保持身體健康，提高個人生產力；但服用過量卻可以招致各項問題。另一方面，就如一般營養產品的對象不是成長期的孩童，槓桿的運用亦然，在組合未成熟、穩定前，槓桿的運用必須謹慎，免除翻船的風險。圖五顯示盈透證券的槓桿利率，較低的利率水平，能提供投資人更充足的緩衝空間，降低出現致命風險的機會。
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Conclusion 結語
Summarising the points mentioned above, execution of plans to improve the capability is of the greatest importance. Possible ways include but not limited to switch of investment choices and use of derivative products. Meanwhile, CK foresees that the changing of custodian be done within Q3 2019.
總括而言，雖然CK組合尚處於起步階段，但其可行性必須得到提升。計劃中的方案包括轉換投資選擇、活用衍生工具等。同時，CK亦計劃於第三季中期更換組合的保管人。
Taking into account of the tendency of FED Reserve to cease rate hike or even cut it down, it could possibly be the resumption of ultra-low interest era. The double-edged sword may again push the price of assets to another historical high but strengthen disparity at the same time. One shall never overlook its potential impacts and properly prepare oneself for its arrival.
較早前，美聯儲暗示年內降低聯邦基金利率（又稱「減息」）的可能，超低息時代或將復辟。危與機，是事物的一體兩面。滙思的筆者期望，藉著交流、互相學習，我們能與各位讀者捉緊市場的機遇，達成各自的目標。
This would be the end of this article. I am CK and look forward to seeing you next time. Bye!
各位讀者，下次見！
Disclaimer: The author of the article (“Author”) is a SFC-licenced person. Author, his clients or his families (together the “Group”) from time to time may make changes to the above portfolio. The data, information, content and/or opinion of the article do not represent the standpoint of Capital Heights (“CH”), and CH shall not be liable for the same. The article is for reference only and is not intended to provide investment advice. It do not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, comment or guarantee to the purchase, subscription or sale of any investment product or service. CH and the Group shall not be liable to any loss or damage incurred by any person caused by direct or indirect usage of the data, information, content and/or opinion of the article.
Risk Disclosure: The following risk disclosure statements cannot disclose all the risks involved. You should undertake your own research and study before you trade or invest. You should carefully consider whether trading or investment is suitable in light of your own financial position and investment objective. You are advised to seek independent financial and professional advice before you trade or invest. You should seek independent professional advice if you are uncertain of or have not understood any aspect of the following risk disclosure statements or the nature and risks involved in trading or investment.
Risks of Securities Trading: The prices of securities fluctuate, sometimes dramatically. The price of a security may move up or down, and may become valueless. It is as likely that losses will be incurred rather than profit made as a result of buying and selling securities.
免責聲明：筆者為香港證監會持牌人士。筆者、其客戶或其家人（下稱「群體」）目前持有相關上市公司的財務權益。上述內容、資料並不代表滙思投資學會（「滙思」）的立場，我們亦不會對該等資料的準確性和完整性作出任何明示或含隱的保證。本文內容僅供參考，並不構成要約、建議或促成任何人士提呈買賣或認購任何證券。本文中之資訊、意見如有錯漏之處而令閣下蒙受損失，滙思及群體概不負責。
風險披露：本風險披露聲明不旨在披露涉及證券及下列其他交易的所有風險。你不應進行有關交易，除非你已瞭解有關的交易之性質及風險。你應尋求獨立財務顧問的意見，並根據你的經驗、目標、財務資源及其他情況，小心考慮你要進行的交易對你而言是否合適。
證券投資風險：證券價格有時可能會非常波動。證券價格可升可跌，甚至變成毫無價值。買賣證券未必一定能夠賺取利潤，反而可能會招致損失。
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